Research

Working Papers:

Reelection Incentives and Political Coercion: Evidence from Indonesian Villages   (Job Market Paper)

Reelection incentives are intended to hold politicians accountable to voters. This paper tests whether central governments can exploit these incentives to control local politicians. I study this phenomenon during Indonesia's transition to democracy, testing whether village head reelection concerns induce greater support for the autocratic regime. Identification leverages staggered village election cycles set prior to Indonesia's nationwide democratization. I find that villages with leaders facing more proximate elections are more likely to support the autocratic regime. Additional evidence suggests that this effect is driven specifically by reelection concerns: I find that baseline results are generated entirely by village heads who are eligible for reelection, and village support for winning district parties is associated with lower rates of subsequent village head turnover. Finally, results disappear when villages receive large development grants through non-governmental actors, indicating that government transfers are a likely mechanism influencing local politicians.

Democratization and Political Responsiveness: Evidence from Indonesian Villages

Press: World Bank Development Impact Blog

Following democratization, how do elected politicians change the allocation of public resources in response to new voters? This paper studies this political responsiveness following Indonesia's transition to democracy, exploiting the staggered introduction of elected district heads for identification. By tracking outcomes across local governments, event study estimates compare the allocation of resources with and without an elected politician in office, at the same point in time, within the same broader institutional context. When elected district heads take office, night light growth is 2.6 percentage points greater across villages supporting the winning political party - an effect that's driven by districts with stronger media presence and political competition in the baseline. These effects, however, are not associated with improvements in local public goods. Disparities in night light growth are more pronounced during village head election years, suggesting that village officials - in addition to voters - are targeted with preferential favors by elected district administrations. Taken together, results suggest that democratization reshapes political responsiveness across new voter constituencies, but may do so through new clientelist systems rather than broader investment in public goods.

Decentralization and Political Accountability: Evidence from Indonesia's 2014 Village Law

Theory suggests that decentralization can increase the efficiency of public service delivery - but only if elections are able to select accountable leaders. This paper tests this relationship between elections, accountability, and development outcomes following a large decentralization reform in Indonesia. By interacting simultaneous revenue windfalls with staggered election cycles at the village level, this reform generates plausibly exogenous differences in the exposure of villages to newly-appointed village heads following the reform. Findings suggest that newly-elected politicians generate increases in public service provision and night light intensity. Meanwhile, elections following the reform are associated with turnover in under-performing village heads, the appointment of better educated village heads, and heightened implementation of accountability measures mandated by the reform. 

Selected Work in Progress: 

Clientelism and Community-Driven Development

Reelection Opportunities and Political Malfeasance

Lame Duck Politicians and Deforestation across Brazilian Municipalities